A trader makes a lottery ticket bet on US natural gas doubling to $10
(Bloomberg) – A trader is making a big bet on the chances of the US doubling by summer.
The trader bought an unusually large 31,382 option contracts on Thursday that would give it the right to buy gas at $10 per million British thermal units by the end of July. As part of the exchange, he sold a similarly sized package of $10.50 calls that will expire the same day, according to block exchange data compiled by Bloomberg.
The transaction cost less than 2 cents per mmbtu of gas — the difference in price between $10 calls and $10.50 calls — and totaled more than $5 million. The trader would benefit the most from a rally to $10.50 before the options expire on July 26, earning him 50 cents per mmbtu, or more than $150 million minus the premium paid to make the trade. .
Natural gas futures jumped more than 50% in the first quarter, a record for the period, on concerns about tight fuel inventories for heating and power plants amid export demand booming. Still, a push to $10 by summer is considered unlikely. The commodity traded in New York at around $5.70 on Friday and is expected to average $3.70 in the third quarter, according to analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.
©2022 Bloomberg LP